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Australia: The Land Where Time Began |
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Antarctic Climate Change and Environment - Changes During the
Instrumental Period
In Antarctica the instrumental period began with the International
Geophysical Year, about 50 years ago.
The large scale atmospheric circulation
In the atmospheric circulation of the high southern latitudes the major
variability mode is the
Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode (SAM), which is
a circumpolar pattern of atmospheric mass displacement in which
intensity and location of air pressure gradient between mid-latitudes
(high pressure) and the coast of Antarctica (low pressure) changes in a
non-periodic manner over widely ranging time scales. The SAM became more
positive over the last 50 years, as around the Antarctic coast pressure
dropped and increased at mid-latitudes. Westerly winds have been
increased over the Southern Ocean by this change by 15-20 % since the
1970s. The Amundsen Seas Low has deepened as a result of the combination
of stronger westerlies around Antarctica with off-pole displacement of
Antarctica, with consequent effects on temperature and sea ice in the
coastal region of West Antarctica.
Increases in atmospheric greenhouse gasses and the development of the
Antarctic ozone hole caused the SAM to change, and it was the loss of
ozone in the stratosphere that had by far the greatest influence. The
loss of stratospheric ozone, which occurs in the Austral spring, cools
the stratosphere, and this increases the strength of the polar vortex –
a large cyclonic circulation at high altitude, in the middle and upper
troposphere and stratosphere in winter over the Southern Ocean around
Antarctica. The effects of the ozone hole propagate down through the
atmosphere in summer and autumn, which increases the atmospheric
circulation around Antarctica at lower levels. The greatest change in
the SAM resulting from this is indicative of conditions at the surface
in autumn.
A decrease in the annual and seasonal numbers of cyclones south of 40oS
was a result of these changes in the SAM from 1958-2007. In the coastal
zone of Antarctica between 60-70oS there are now fewer though
more intense cyclones, with the exception of the region of the
Bellingshausen Sea.
There have been more El Niño events that are more intense in recent
decades. A signal of the El
Niño cycle can be seen in the Antarctic during some of them. To date no
evidence has been found indicating that long term climate trends in
Antarctica have been affected.
Atmospheric temperatures
Surface temperature trends show there has been significant warming
across the Antarctic Peninsula, and in West Antarctica, to a lesser
extent, since the early 1950s, though there has been little change
across the remainder of the Antarctic continent. It is in the northern
and western parts of the Antarctic Peninsula that the largest warming
trends have occurred. It is there, at the Faraday/Vernadsky Station,
that the largest statistically significant (<5%) trend of +0.53oC
per decade for the period 1951-2006 has occurred. A warming trend of
+0.20oC/decade is shown by the 100-year record from Orcadas
on Laurie Island, South Orkney Islands. Warming on the western part of
the Peninsula has been largest during the winter, at which time the
temperatures at the Faraday/Vernadsky Station have been increasing by
+1.03oC/decade from 1950 -2006. During the winter there is a
high correlation between the extent of sea ice and surface temperatures,
which suggests more sea ice during the 1950s-1969s which has been
reducing since then. Natural variability may be reflected by this
warming.
Temperatures have risen most during summer and autumn on the eastern
side of the Antarctic Peninsula (at +0.41oC/decade from
1946-2006 at Esperanza), linked to the strengthening westerlies that
occurred as the SAM shifted into a positive phase, which is primarily a
result of the ozone hole. On the eastern side if the Peninsula warm,
maritime air masses are brought across by the stronger westerly winds.
West Antarctica has warmed by about 0.1oC/decade, based on
satellite data and data from automated weather stations, especially in
winter and spring. This warming is suggested to have begun about 1800 by
ice core data from the Siple Dome. Elsewhere in Antarctica there have
not been many changes that are statistically significant during the
instrumental period.
A statistically significant cooling over recent decades, which is
interpreted as being due to fewer maritime air masses penetrating into
the interior of the continent, has been shown on the plateau,
Amundsen-Scott Station at the South Pole.
Large interannual to decadal variability is shown by temperatures that
were reconstructed from ice cores, with anti-phase anomalies between the
continent and the peninsula being the dominant pattern, which is the
classic signature of the SAM. Antarctic temperatures are suggested to
have increased on average by about 0.2oC since the late 19th
century.
Temperature profiles from Antarctic radiosonde data show that the
troposphere has warmed at 5 km above sea level, while the stratosphere
above it has cooled over the last 30 years. This is the sort of pattern
that would be expected to result from increasing atmospheric greenhouse
gasses. At this level the tropospheric warming in winter is the largest
on Earth. It may be in part resulting from the insulating effect of
greater amounts of polar stratospheric cloud during the winter. The
formation of these clouds is a response to cooling of the stratosphere
which related to the ozone hole.
Snowfall
About 6 mm of global sea level equivalent on average falls as snow in
Antarctica per year, though there has been no statistically significant
increase since 1957, and snowfall trends vary from region to region. On
the western side of the Peninsula snowfall has increased, where it has
been linked to decreasing populations of Adélie penguins, which prefer
habitat that is snow free.
Antarctic ozone hole
In the 1970s a decline began in levels of stratospheric ozone, following
the release of CFCs into the atmosphere with the result that virtually
all the ozone was destroyed between altitudes of 14 and 22 km above
Antarctica. Due to the success of the Montreal Protocol the amounts of
ozone-depleting substances in the stratosphere are decreasing by about
1% per year. This has resulted in the stabilisation of the size and
depth of the ozone hole, though neither is reducing so far.
Terrestrial biology
The flowering plants that were native to Antarctica (Deschampsia
Antarctica and
Colobanthus quintensis)
in maritime regions of Antarctica, which have become more abundant at
some sites, are the clearest evidence of Antarctic terrestrial organisms
responding to climate change. The growth and spread of established
plants and increased establishment of seedlings are encouraged by
warming. Biological production in lakes has increased due to changes of
temperature and precipitation, the main reason being decreases in the
duration and extent of ice cover on the lake. As a result of drier
conditions some lakes have become more saline.
On most of the sub-Antarctic islands, as well as some parts of the
continent, alien microbes, fungi, plants and animals have been
introduced through human activity. The structure and functioning of
native ecosystems and their biota have been impacted by these introduced
organisms. Rates of establishment through anthropogenic introduction
outweigh those from natural colonisation processes by 2 orders of
magnitude on Marion Island and Gough Island.
Terrestrial cryosphere
In the Antarctic Peninsula ice shelves have changed rapidly in recent
decades, with warming leading to ice shelf retreat on both sides of the
permafrost. Warm air being brought over the Peninsula by stronger
wester9 ies, that are forced by changes in the SAM, driven ultimately by
the development of the ozone hole. Increased fracturing by infilling
with meltwater of crevasses that are pre-existing, and the penetration
of warm masses of ocean water beneath the ice are resulting in ice shelf
retreat. The speeding up of the flow of glaciers from the interior has
resulted from the loss of ice shelves.
There are some islands that are now covered by snow only in winter that
were formerly snow covered throughout the year. Since the 1940s Heard
Island glaciers have been reduced by 11%, and there are now several
coastal lagoons that have formed there. 28 of the 36 glaciers on South
Georgia that have been surveyed are retreating, 2 are advancing and 6
are stable. Ice cover has reduced by about 40 % on Signy Island.
212 (87 %) of the 244 marine glaciers draining the ice sheet and
associated islands of the Antarctic Peninsula have shown overall retreat
since 1953. Small advances have been shown by the other 32 glaciers.
·
The Amundsen Sea sector - the most rapidly changing region of the
Antarctic ice sheet. The current rate of mass loss from Amundsen Sea
embayment ranges from 50-137 Gt/year, equivalent to the current mass
loss rate from the entire Greenland ice sheet, and it makes a
significant contribution to rising sea levels
·
The Pine Island glacier – grounding line has retreated and the glacier
is now moving 60 % faster than it did in the 1970s.
·
The Pine Island glacier – as well as adjacent glacier systems, are more
than 40 % out of balance, discharge = 280 ±
9 Gt/year of ice, receive = 177 ± 25 Gt/year of snowfall
·
The Thwaites Glacier – as well as 4 other glaciers in this region, are
thinning at an accelerated rate,
·
The Smith Glacier – flow speed increased by 83 % since 1972
The changes are the result of warming of the sea beneath the ice shelves
that are connected to the glaciers. The stronger winds associated with
the more positive SAM are driving warm Circumpolar Deep Water up against
the western coast of the Peninsula and the coast of the Amundsen Sea.
Across most of the East Antarctic ice sheet the changes are less
dramatic, the most significant changes being close to the coast. There
is moderate thickening in the interior of the ice sheet and a mixture of
modest thickening and strong thinning among the fringe ice shelves.
Recent passive microwave data suggest there is increasing coastal melt.
Changes in sea level
It is suggested by data from tide gauges and satellite altimeters that
in the 1990s-2000s global sea level rose at a rate of 3 mm/year or more,
which is higher than expected from IPCC projections, though since then
the rate has slowed to about 2.5 mm/year. There is concern about the
possibility those large contributions that result from the dynamic
instability if ice sheets during the 21st century. At around
2005 the Antarctic Peninsula was estimated to have been contributing at
a rate of 0.16 ± 0.06 mm/yr to global rise in sea level.
The Southern Ocean
An intensive seasonal cycle can induce large errors when there are only
a few samples, which can make it difficult to detect change in surface
waters. There are, however, observations from around South Georgia going
back to 1925 that are frequent enough to resolve the annual cycle and
reveal a significant warming that averages 2.3oC over 81
years in the upper 150 m, and being about twice as strong in winter than
in summer.
The temperature of the waters of the ACC has increased 0.06oC/decade
at depths of 300-2,000 m between the 1960s and the 2000s, and by 0.09oC/decade
since the 1980s, which means it has warmed more rapidly than the global
ocean as a whole. On the southern side of the ACC the warming has been
more intense than the waters to the north of it, the Upper Circumpolar
Deep Water at depths of 150-500 m on the poleward side of the Polar
Front reaching a maximum increase of 0.17oC/decade. These
changes are consistent with the ACC shifting southward in response to
the southward shift of the westerly winds that has been driven by
enhanced greenhouse forcing. Since the 1980s a significant freshening of
-.0.01 salinity units/decade has been observed on the northern side of
the ACC. No evidence has been that would suggest the ACC transport has
been increasing. It is suggested by recent studies that there has been
an increase in wind forcing that causes an increase in the meridional
transport of heat and salt, though increased transport has been by
eddies and not by a change in zonal transport by the ACC.
Changes are evident in the character of Ross Sea and the Weddell Sea,
though neither of them has shown major trends in the long term, with the
exception of a small degree of freshening. The Weddell Polynya, a
persistent gap in the sea ice, occurred for several winters during the
1970s, which had a significant impact on the properties of deep water,
as it was a place where the ocean lost a large amount of heat to the
atmosphere. Significant decadal and regional change has
been observed in deep water masses in the Weddell Sea which make it
difficult to detect long-term trends. Bottom water in the central
Weddell Sea is warming and increasingly more saline over decadal time
scales, while in the western Weddell Sea and the Australian sector,
which includes the Ross Sea and Adélie Land, is cooling and freshening.
These changes are of interest because it is in these places where the
Antarctic Bottom Water originates and changes in these locations will
spread into the world ocean.
Biogeochemistry
The global oceans are ventilated by the Southern Ocean and it also
regulates the climate system by absorbing and storing heat, freshwater,
O2 and atmospheric CO2. The CO2
concentration in the ocean increased to the south of 20oS in
the southern Indian Ocean from 1991-2007. CO2 increased
faster in the ocean than it did in the atmosphere at latitudes polewards
of 40oS, which suggests the ocean became a less effective sink for
atmosphere CO2. Stronger westerly winds lead to the oceanic
water at the surface being mixed with deeper water rich in CO2,
and this saturates the carbon reservoir of the surface water, which
therefore limits it ability to absorb atmospheric CO2. These
changes appear to be linked to the increasing wind strength which is
driven by the more positive SAM. The ocean becomes more acidic as a
result of the increase of CO2 concentration in the ocean.
Sea ice
Ship observations over the first half of the 20th century
suggest the extent of sea ice was greater than had been seen in recent
decades, though the validity of such observations has been questioned.
The data concerning the extent of sea ice from satellites for 1979-2006
show a positive trend of around 1 % per decade. The trend is positive in
all sectors with the exception of the Bellingshausen Sea, where the
extent of sea ice has been reduced significantly. At about 4.5 % per
decade, the greatest increase is in the Ross Sea. The deepening of the
Amundsen Sea Low, which is linked to the ozone hole, has led to the
reduction of the extent of sea ice in the Bellingshausen Sea and an
increase of extent of sea ice in the Ross Sea.
Permafrost
Not much is known about Antarctic permafrost. Between 1963-1990 the
active layer, the layer that freezes and thaws according to season, on
Signy Island increased in thickness by 30 cm, when Signy Island was
warming, than from 1990-2001, when Signy Island cooled, the thickness
decreased by 30 cm. The permafrost in McMurdo Sound the temperature at
-360 cm has remained stable, in spite of the small decrease in
atmospheric temperature of 0.1oC/year.
Marine biology
The ecosystem of the Southern Ocean was disturbed by sealing and then in
the early part of the 20th century by whaling. Within a
period of a few decades about 300,000 blue whales were killed, which is
equivalent to 30 million tonnes of biomass. Most of those killed were in
their feeding areas in the southwest Atlantic in an area of 2 million km2,
which is a density of 1 blue whale/6 km2. The krill stock was
expected to increase following the near-extinction of some of whale
populations as there was a release from grazing pressure, but it didn’t.
There was an increase in the predation by birds and seals, the total
biomass of birds and seals remain only a fraction of the former whale
population. On a regional scale benthic habitats have been devastated by
bottom fishing; it is expected that fish stocks and invertebrates will
recover only very slowly.
The Antarctic marine ecosystem has been affected by climate change for
the past 50 years, especially on the western side of the Antarctic
Peninsula, where the water is warming and the extent of sea ice is
declining. The krill in this warming water is declining, in some areas
there has been a decrease of phytoplankton while in other areas they are
increasing and a shift to the south of the population of gelatinous
salps. A decline in phytoplankton may reflect a decrease in the input of
iron from the continental margin that in turn is related to the
reduction of sea ice formation in this region and hence to climate
change. All components of the pelagic Antarctic ecosystem that are
related to sea ice are impacted by the consequences of the regional
decrease of sea ice to the west of the Antarctic Peninsula, and there
are only hints, though not yet evidence, of the impacts of climate
change are present for the
benthic fauna.
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Author: M.H.Monroe Email: admin@austhrutime.com Sources & Further reading |