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Australia: The Land Where Time Began |
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Antarctic Climate Change and Environment - Next 100 Years
It is a challenge to predict how the Antarctic environment will evolve
over the next 100 years, yet it has implications for science and for
policy makers. The use of coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice models is
necessary to predict climate evolution with some degree of confidence.
As the models take a large number of parameters into consideration the
model outputs are an improvement on simple projections on current
trends. They are the only means of providing synoptic views of the
future behaviour of environments, albeit crudely and at a coarse
resolution. The output of the models do not quite accurately simulate
the changes that have been observed over the last few decades, so some
uncertainty remains concerning their forward projections, particularly
on regional scales.
Atmospheric circulation
It is expected that the ozone hole recovery combined with a continuing
increase in greenhouse gas emissions should continue to strengthen the
positive phase of the SAM, though with a trend that is slower than that
has been observed over the last 2 decades. Therefore it can be expected
that there will be further increases in surface winds above the Southern
Ocean in summer and autumn. This will result in a continuing polewards
shift of the storm track of the Southern Ocean.
Temperature
Significant surface warming over Antarctica is projected by models to
2100, with an increase of 0.34oC/decade over land and
grounded ice sheets, within a range of 0.14-0.5oC/decade. The
largest increase over land is projected for the high altitude interior
of East Antarctica. The surface temperature by 2100 is expected to
remain well below freezing, in spite of this change over most of
Antarctica and will contribute to melting inland.
The largest atmospheric warming that is projected by the models is the
sea ice zone off East Antarctica in winter, 0.51 ± 0.26oC/decade
, as the sea ice edge continues to retreat and the consequent exposure
of the ocean to heating by insolation.
There is low confidence in the regional detail, though there is
confidence in the overall projection of warming, because of the large
differences in regional outcomes between models.
In the troposphere at 5 km above sea level the annual mean warming rate
is projected to be 0.28oC/decade, which is slightly lower
than the forecast warming at the surface.
The magnitude or frequency of changes to extreme conditions above
Antarctica cannot yet be forecast, which is something biologists need to
assess any potential impacts. The extreme temperature range within a
given year between summer and winter is projected to decrease around the
coasts and to show little change over the interior.
The warming of 3oC that is expected over the next 100 years
is faster than the fastest rate recorded in the Antarctic ice cores (4oC,
1,000 years), though it is slower than or comparable to the rates of
rise of temperature typical of Dansgaard-Oeschger events that occurred
in Greenland in glacial times, or the Bolling-Allerød warming in
Greenland 14,700 years ago, and of the warming in Greenland at the end
of the Younger Dryas about 11,700 years ago. Therefore it is feasible in
terms of what is known about the natural system, however unlikely it may
appear.
Precipitation
The amount of precipitation that occurred in the 20th century
is generally underestimated by the current numerical models. These
underestimating results from problems associated with parameterising the
key processes driving precipitation, such as the poor understanding of
the microphysics of polar clouds, and because in a coarse resolution
model the smooth coastal escarpment causes less precipitation from
cyclones than they do in reality. Most models are expected to give net
precipitation increases in the future with warmer air and higher
atmospheric moisture. Over the coming century most models simulate an
increase in precipitation over Antarctica that is larger in winter than
in summer, and it is suggested by the output of models that snowfall
over the continent may increase by 20 % compared to current values
(Bracegirdle et al., 2008).
With the expected move to the south of the mid-latitude storm track it
can be expected there will be greater precipitation and accumulation in
the coastal regions of Antarctica. As liquid water in available to biota
immediately, the form that precipitation takes is of biological
significance (Convey, 2006) with the balance between rain and snow to
change towards rain, especially along the Antarctic Peninsula.
Ozone hole
Springtime atmospheric concentrations of ozone are predicted to have
recovered significantly by the middle of the 21st century,
though not necessarily to 1980 values, as a result of increasing
concentrations of greenhouse gasses that have accumulated and warmed the
troposphere, which cools the stratosphere further. It is expected that
in a colder stratosphere ozone destruction will continue.
Tropospheric chemistry
There are various trace gasses, such as dimethyl sulphide (DMS) which is
generated by plankton, are released from the oceans around Antarctica.
The emissions of these gasses, which have a seasonal cycle that is
linked closely to the extent of sea ice and to the Sun, are projected to
be increased by any loss of sea ice. Emissions of gasses such as DMS
would likely be increased in a warmer world, in which the extent of sea
ice was reduced, with a minimum in winter and a maximum in summer. Cloud
condensation nuclei (CCN) are sourced from the DMS via its oxidation to
sulphate. If the numbers of CCN are increased it may lead in an increase
in cloudiness and albedo, which would influence the climate of the
Earth.
Terrestrial biology
Growth and reproduction may be promoted by increased temperature, though
also causing drought and associated effects. Vegetation and faunal
dynamics are affected more by the changes to the availability of water
than by temperature. It is not clear what the regional patterns of the
availability of water may be in the future, but it is predicted by
climate models that there will be an increase in precipitation in
coastal regions. The tolerance of many arthropods could readily be
exceeded by increasing frequency and intensity of freeze-thaw events.
Many species may exhibit faster metabolic rates with increases in
temperature, which would result in shorter life cycles and local
expansion of populations. The catchment of lakes will probably be
altered by even subtle changes in temperature, precipitation and wind
speed, and of the time, depth and extent of their ice cover, water
volume and chemistry, with related effects on lake ecosystems. Invasion
by more competitive alien species carried by currents of water and air,
humans and other animals would likely also be increased by warming.
Terrestrial cryosphere
The predictive value of existing ice sheet models is in doubt because
they do not properly reproduce the observed behaviour of ice sheets.
Mechanical degradation, such as cracks that are caused by water which
propagates in summer, which changes the lubrication of the base of the
ice by an evolving subglacial hydrological regime, or the influence on
the flow of outlet glaciers and ice streams of variable sub-ice-shelf
melting, are not taken into account by the models. A combination of
inference from past behaviour, extension of current behaviour, and
interpretation of proxy data and analogues from the geological record,
are the basis for predictions of the state of ice sheets in the future.
The regions that are changing at the present are expected to be those
that are most likely to change in the future. It is expected that in the
Amundsen Sea warmer waters will continue upwelling onto the continental
shelf and continue to erode the underside of ice sheets and glaciers. A
30 % probability has been suggested that ice loss from the West
Antarctic ice sheet could lead to a sea level rise of 2 mm/year, and a 5
% probability that rate of rise could reach 1 cm/year. Also, there is a
concern that the Amundsen Sea Embayment ice could be entering a collapse
phase that could result in deglaciation of parts of the West Antarctic
ice sheet. It is suggested that a contribution to sea level rise from
this sector alone could ultimately reach 1.5 m, so it cannot be
discounted that by 2100 sea level could rise by 10s of centimetres.
These estimates are based on the assumption that the ice sheets will
respond in a linear manner to warming and that contributions to rising
sea levels are confined to the West Antarctica ice sheet. If evidence
from all marine-based regions is included, together with evidence from
abrupt climate changes in the past, the estimates could increase
significantly.
Most of the effects leading to ice loss on the Antarctic Peninsula are
confined to the northern part, which would contribute a few centimetres
of sea level rise. A southerly progression of ice shelf disintegrations
along both coasts will result from increased warming. It is suggested an
increase in surface melt-water lakes, and/or progressive retreat of the
calving front, may precede these. It is not yet possible to predict the
timing of the destruction of ice shelves. As the ice shelves are removed
the speed of glaciers to the sea will increase. On the Antarctic
Peninsula the total volume of ice is 95,200 km3, which is
equivalent to 242 mm of sea level, or about half that of all glaciers
and ice caps outside Greenland and Antarctica, therefore increased
warming may lead to the Peninsula contributing a substantial amount to
the global sea level.
Sea level
A range of global sea level increases from 18-59 cm between 1980-1999
and 2090-2099 was projected by the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report.
Something they didn’t include was a contribution from changes that were
dynamically driven flow changes in portions of either the Greenland or
Antarctic ice sheets. It is suggested by recent modelling that there may
be a rise of up to 1.4 m, instead of the 59 cm, that was suggested by
the
IPCC. The spatial pattern of sea level rise projections show the
rise will not be uniform, with a minimum in the Southern Hemisphere and
a maximum in the Northern Hemisphere in the Arctic Ocean.
Biogeochemistry
The Southern Ocean is suggested by model projections to be an increased
sink for atmospheric CO2. The way the ocean responds to
increased ocean warming and stratification, which can drive both
increases in CO2 uptake by biological and export changes, and
decreases by changes of solubility and density, will determine the
magnitude of the uptake.
Ocean circulation and water masses
The ability of the models to simulate ocean behaviour is limited, which
is an important constraint, as they have a key role in eddies in the
transport of heat from north to south in the Southern Ocean. As a result
ocean models that are components of General Circulation Models (GCMs)
are deficient in having typical grid spacing of about 100 km in the
horizontal, which is larger than the typical ocean eddy. An
intensification of the ACC in response to the southwards shift and
intensification of the westerly winds over the Southern Ocean is
generally predicted by the models. In the Drake Passage the increase in
the transport of the ACC that is predicted for 2100 is expected to reach
a few Sverdrups (1 Sv = 1 million cubic metres/second). A small
displacement for the core of the ACC, which is <1o in
latitude is expected to result from the enhanced winds.
In the Southern Ocean the warming that has been observed at mid-depth
and the surface layer is projected to continue and eventually reach
almost all depths. The warming is expected to be weaker close to the
surface than in other regions. There could be enhanced ocean ventilation
as a result of enhanced divergence of surface waters that is induced by
the increasing wind stress and the associated upwelling. It is suggested
by model calculations that by 2100 bottom waters could warm by 0.25oC.
The density would decrease and hence the ventilation of the Antarctic
Bottom Water.
Sea ice
It is suggested by the models that there will be a decrease in the
annual average total area of sea ice of 2.6 x 106 km2,
which is 33 %. Winter and spring are the seasons when most of the
retreat is expected, which will reduce the amplitude of the annual sea
ice area cycle. It is not possible for the current generation of models
to provide a precise regional picture of the changes that should be
expected.
Permafrost
It is likely the area of permafrost will be reduced, which will be
accompanied by a subsidence of the ground surface and associated mass
movements. The northern Antarctic Peninsula and the South Shetland and
South Orkney Islands, as well as coastal areas in East Antarctica, are
the areas in where change is most likely. A risk to infrastructure is
implied by the forecast changes.
Experimental evidence comprises the majority of evidence of how benthic
organisms may cope with rising temperature. A key trait of Antarctic
marine animals is being typically ‘stenothermal’, i.e. being capable of
living within a limited temperature range. They would be highly
sensitive to significant warming if they are truly so limited. It has
been shown by experiments that most species have upper temperature
limits above which temperatures are lethal of less than 10oC,
some surviving no more than a 5oC change. A rise of this
magnitude in the Southern Ocean by 2100 is considered to be extremely
unlikely. Though the behaviour of organisms can be affected by rising
temperatures long before the lethal temperature is reached; whether the
feeding, swimming and reproduction, as well as other critical
activities, can be carried
out by populations or species may determine if the survive the coming
temperature increases.
By 2100 the temperatures of the bottom water on the continental shelf
are suggested by model projections to be between 0.5 and 0.75oC
warmer, with the exception of the Weddell Sea where temperatures are
expected to be lower. As the warming of the surface and bottom waters
are projected to be no more than 0.75oC it is suggested that
there may be less effect on the marine biota than is found in lab
experiments, over this time scale at least. It is near the core of the
ACC that warming is projected to greater than 1.5oC.
Several of the Antarctica taxa have been found to have a distribution
that extends across a range of sites or depths with a temperature range
that is much greater than ‘typical Antarctic conditions’. Many
populations of typical Antarctic species have been found at South
Georgia, in spite of maximum summer temperatures there having been 3oC
warmer than the Antarctic Peninsula. It therefore appears there may be a
conflict between experimental and ecological evaluations of
vulnerability, which suggest the ecological context may be crucial.
Marine ice algae will begin a continuous decline as their habitat is
lost if the cover of sea ice continues to decrease, which may result in
a cascade of higher trophic levels in the food web. Extinction might be
expected of species depending for their survival on any of the trophic
levels that ultimately depend on the presence of sea ice algae at the
base of the food web, such as some fish, penguins, seals and whales. It
is suggested by climate models that there is not likely to be a complete
loss of sea ice within the next 100 years, as seems to have been the
case in previous interglacials, with sea ice not being completely lost.
Algal blooms are expected to occur more often as sea ice declines which
would supply food to benthic organisms on the shelf. It is expected
there may be a decline in suspension feeders that have adapted to
limited food supplies, and to their associated fauna, as there is
expected to be an increase in the phytodetritus on the shelf.
It is expected that among the largest ecosystem changes on Earth will be
changes from a unique ice-shelf-covered ecosystem to a typical Antarctic
shelf ecosystem, as ice shelves collapse, with primary production being
high during the short summer.
It is believed there will likely be some thinning of aragonite skeletons
of the pteropods that comprise an important part of the plankton at the
base of the food chain if pH levels of the surface waters of the ocean
increase in acidity by 0.2-0.3 units by 2100; also there is a potential
threat to benthic calcifiers such as corals. Because there are low
concentrations of CaCO3 the Southern Ocean is at higher risk
from this than other oceans.
Continued warming of the ocean and expanded tourism and scientific
activity may lead to the establishment of non-indigenous species by
2100, with a consequent reduction or extinction of some species that are
locally endemic, given the slow growth rates and high degree of endemism
among Antarctic species. It is likely the invasion of new species will
remain restricted to isolated areas where invaders can survive at the
physiological limits. To date it is not clear if the finding of a very
few ‘non-indigenous’ macroalgae and invertebrate animals are rare
occurrences at their natural southern limits of distribution, or are the
first stages of a marine biogeographical shift that has been induced by
ocean warming.
There are a number of disturbing agents affecting the marine biota:
1.
Increased ice loading and coastal concentrations of large icebergs
calved from the collapse of ice shelves, which result in more ice scour;
2.
Increased coastal sedimentation that is associated with melting ice,
which smothers benthos and hinders feeding;
3.
Surface waters freshening which results in stratification of the water
column; and
4.
Thermal events such as those associated with El Niño events.
Climate change chronic impacts include:
1
disintegration of ice shelves which exposes new habitats;
2
long-term iceberg scour decreases leading to decreased local
biodiversity but increased regional biodiversity;
3
Physiological effect of direct warming leading to a reduction of
performance of critical activities and therefore geographic and
bathymetric migration;
4
Benthic responses to changes in the pelagic system, especially in the
food web;
5
An increase in acidification which leads to skeletal synthesis and
maintenance problems; and
6
A slight degree of deoxygenation of surface waters which ultimately
leads in deeper layers to more serious deoxygenation. The advantage for
survival is minimised by the absence of wide latitudinal and
environmental gradients around the Antarctic continent.
It is likely that fur seals will respond to most changes in extreme
climate events, such those caused by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation
(ENSO). The sea ice is depended on for completion of the life cycle of
emperor penguins and other species. The populations of these animals are
likely to be affected by a significant decline in sea ice, leading to
Antarctic species being displaced by immigrating subantarctic species.
According to Turner et al. it
appears to be unlikely that more than a few species will become extinct
by 2100, either as a result of not being able to cope ecologically or
physiologically with such an increase, or restricted to an area by an
above average temperature increase.
Biodiversity studies, together with sound data handling and
dissemination, will allow a better understanding of the evolution of
life in the marine environment, and the extent of potential it has to
respond to change. A legacy of knowledge for future generations, in the
form of a comprehensive information system, can be provided by bridges
between different disciplines and international programs.
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Author: M.H.Monroe Email: admin@austhrutime.com Sources & Further reading |